Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c91…f707 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$5
world 23% −$1
sports 12% $0
politics 7% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -0.5% -9.9% 3% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage300d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $135 −$3 -2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 27 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 26 $58 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records