Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c8d…f2a5
politics · 189 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$33 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses56 / 127
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)183 / 189
History coverage47d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 6 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$106
14 days−$9
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 24¢ 28¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 22¢ 28¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 45¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? No 43¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? No 48¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? No 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs Cook Islands Japan 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 16¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone Marco Trungelliti 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Punjab Kings 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? No 15¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -23%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $9 −$4 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $8 +$5 +68%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -15%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $24 −$7 -28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$8 -44%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 11 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $39 −$9 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $46 −$9 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $38 −$11 -29%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 07 $8 −$2 -24%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $21 −$18 -89%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 07 $7 +$3 +37%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +17%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $11 +$7 +63%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 06 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $18 −$2 -13%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $8 +$9 +109%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $13 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% +$63
world 20% +$2
other 16% −$25
sports 16% −$69
crypto 4% −$3
tech 3% −$21
culture 3% −$8
finance 2% −$10
economics 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 28¢ $10 6m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 13¢ $5 29m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 23¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 24¢ $11 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 43¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $9 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 34¢ $7 8h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $5 12h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $4 14h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL No 15¢ $5 19h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY No 28¢ $6 21h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY No 28¢ $3 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $4 22h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL No 49¢ $1 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $5 23h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 58¢ $13 32h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 60¢ $8 34h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 34¢ $9 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 59¢ $10 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 59¢ $3 37h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 73¢ $6 41h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 45¢ $6 42h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 38¢ $1 46h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $5 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $0 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $1 2d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 22¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.2% -25.0% 28% 15% -25.8%
≤30d 159 +6.5% -3.6% 31% 26% -11.7%
≤90d 183 +6.1% -4.0% 31% 26% -12.1%
all 183 +6.1% -4.0% 31% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 26% -12.1%
10% -13.2% 22% -20.5%
15% -21.6% 18% -28.2%
20% -29.3% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.23 · official $50.24 (match) · 739 history records