Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c87…98b1 sports 411 markets active 7h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,188 (-35%) realized −$2,186 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%118W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day65.7pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,061
7 days−$3,116
14 days−$3,089
30 days−$3,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$154
crypto 13% −$17
weather 2% −$129
other 2% +$18
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -76.7% -78.9% 6% 5% -80.3%
≤30d 497 -24.3% -31.5% 16% 13% -56.5%
≤90d 691 -24.4% -31.6% 17% 14% -44.0%
all 691 -24.4% -31.6% 17% 14% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 14% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 12% -49.3%
15% -44.1% 12% -54.2%
20% -49.6% 11% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2,186
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses118 / 573
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions3
Markets (closed)691 / 411
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 23? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 2) Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 18 $170 −$185 -109%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 18 $10 −$19 -194%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Big Bash League: Brisbane Heat vs Perth Scorchers (Game 1) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
U19 World Cup: England Under-19s vs India Under-19s Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
International T20 Series: South Africa vs West Indies (Game 2) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 12h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 0¢ $2 12h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 1¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $11 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 13¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 1¢ $5 15h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta SELL Tomasz Berkieta 1¢ $0 30h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 0¢ $0 30h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 1¢ $0 30h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 1¢ $0 30h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 1¢ $0 30h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 1¢ $0 30h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 0¢ $1 31h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 0¢ $0 31h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You SELL Xiaodi You 1¢ $0 31h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You SELL Xiaodi You 2¢ $10 31h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 1¢ $10 31h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 1¢ $0 31h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei SELL Aliona Falei 0¢ $0 31h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei SELL Aliona Falei 0¢ $0 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 3500 history records