Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c87…f576 crypto 599 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$537 (-3%) realized −$537 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%312W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$95
14 days−$237
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$485
sports 20% −$463
other 3% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +32.3% +19.7% 55% 51% -2.3%
≤30d 204 +12.4% +1.7% 57% 54% -16.4%
≤90d 599 +9.0% -1.4% 52% 49% -14.0%
all 599 +9.0% -1.4% 52% 49% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 49% -14.0%
10% -10.8% 46% -22.2%
15% -19.4% 40% -29.7%
20% -27.3% 34% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses312 / 287
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)599 / 599
History coverage64d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 599 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$22 +107%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 +$17 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$44 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$70 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$31 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$36 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1660 history records