Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c86…6a80 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,087 (+87%) realized +$1,142 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$832
other 31% +$82
world 1% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +74.9% +58.2% 50% 50% +88.8%
≤30d 14 +74.9% +58.2% 50% 50% +88.8%
≤90d 14 +74.9% +58.2% 50% 50% +88.8%
all 14 +74.9% +58.2% 50% 50% +88.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.2% 50% +88.8%
10% ← realistic here +43.1% 50% +70.7%
15% +29.2% 50% +54.2%
20% +16.6% 50% +39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +144% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$53 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$1,142
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Yes 57¢ 58¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Ali Olwan: 3+ shots Yes 30¢ 17¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-43%)
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots Yes 57¢ 28¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 21¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots Yes 49¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots Jun 22 $100 +$139 +140%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 +$61 +398%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots Jun 21 $56 +$51 +90%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 +$201 +197%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 21 $53 −$52 -97%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $103 +$511 +498%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$305 +298%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$130 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ali Olwan: 3+ shots BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 94¢ $76 7h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $53 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $20 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 4¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 8h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 11¢ $51 8h
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 32¢ $51 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $51 9h
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $5 11h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots BUY Yes 1¢ $51 11h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $19 15h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $100 15h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $38 15h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $102 15h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $614 22h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $408 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $231 23h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 15¢ $103 24h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $102 25h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $102 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.61 · official $231.62 (match) · 32 history records