Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c86…1ac1 crypto 580 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%311W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2
sports 11% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -19.0% -26.7% 54% 49% -7.8%
≤30d 296 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 49% -8.8%
≤90d 340 -17.7% -25.5% 52% 48% -7.0%
all 580 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 49% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 49% -8.2%
10% -26.3% 44% -17.0%
15% -33.4% 32% -25.0%
20% -40.0% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses311 / 269
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)580 / 580
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 580 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1203 history records