Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

0C 0x0c85…7824 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$29 (+14%) realized +$35 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate55%16W / 13L

Drawdown67%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day21.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	+20.2%	+8.8%	55%	52%	+5.2%
≤30d	29	+20.2%	+8.8%	55%	52%	+5.2%
≤90d	29	+20.2%	+8.8%	55%	52%	+5.2%
all	29	+20.2%	+8.8%	55%	52%	+5.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.4 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.8%	52%	+5.2%
10% ← realistic here	-1.6%	48%	-4.9%
15%	-11.1%	45%	-14.1%
20%	-19.8%	38%	-22.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$35

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses16 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)29 / 34

History coverage3d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day21.4

Drawdown67%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	No	81¢	100¢	$8	$10	+$2 (+23%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Over	32¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-98%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Over	68¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-99%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Over	49¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$4	+$2	+50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$6	+$5	+77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$8	+$3	+33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$4	+$3	+79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$3	+$6	+189%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$6	$0	-3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$6	+57%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	+$5	+103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$6	+$2	+36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$16	−$16	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	+$10	+197%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$15	+$8	+55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$4	+$7	+160%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$3	$0	-5%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron	Jun 12	$6	+$8	+127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 12	$10	−$5	-51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$2	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 12	$10	+$1	+9%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 12	$5	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 12	$5	+$3	+57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$14	+$21	+148%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 12	$5	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt	Jun 12	$1	$0	+18%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6	59m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$11	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$6	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	81¢	$8	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	49¢	$2	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	68¢	$4	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$4	2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	32¢	$2	2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	85¢	$11	3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	63¢	$8	5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	86¢	$9	6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$4	8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	46¢	$6	8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$6	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	22h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	56¢	$5	24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$10	29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$8	29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$6	30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$7	30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	33¢	$5	32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$5	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 72 history records