Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0c84…a8ed sports 602 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$94,726 (-15%) realized −$102,001 · open +$7,275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%306W / 561L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,043per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Fees−$6,335est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$23,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$61,741
other 32% −$14,894
world 2% $0
crypto 0% −$2,350
finance 0% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 -84.1% -85.6% 7% 7% -76.6%
≤30d 461 -53.8% -58.2% 22% 22% -66.2%
≤90d 867 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 35% -54.4%
all 867 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 35% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 35% -54.4%
10% -41.5% 35% -58.7%
15% ← realistic here -47.2% 35% -62.7%
20% -52.3% 35% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,839) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$997 vs −$1,617 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$23,960
Realized−$102,001
Unrealized+$7,275
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses306 / 561
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$6,335
Open positions3
Markets (closed)867 / 602
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1,043
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 867 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 84¢ $14,280 $23,660 +$9,380 (+66%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ 6¢ $2,400 $300 −$2,100 (-88%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5 Jun 20 $3,154 −$3,154 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 20 $12,570 −$12,570 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,044 −$1,044 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 20 $832 −$832 -100%
Spread: Suns (-8.5) Jun 20 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 Jun 20 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5) Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Will AD Cali win on 2026-03-14? Jun 20 $280 −$280 -100%
Livingston FC vs. St Mirren FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $2,492 −$2,492 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-08? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8,500 −$8,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Jun 20 $1,701 −$1,701 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Jun 20 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 20 $4,745 −$4,745 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Jun 20 $7,220 −$7,220 -100%
Rodez Aveyron Football vs. Grenoble Foot 38: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Jun 20 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-03-28? Jun 20 $211 −$211 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $146 −$146 -100%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
FC Hradec Králové vs. Bohemians Praha 1905: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-06? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 20 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5 Jun 20 $1,877 −$1,877 -100%
Smouha SC vs. Modern SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Club Necaxa vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $373 −$373 -100%
Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 20 $5,790 −$5,790 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-03-14? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-20? Jun 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: AZ (-1.5) Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10,409 −$10,409 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-02-25? Jun 20 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-05? Jun 20 $556 −$556 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,587 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,550 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,587 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,587 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,587 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,530 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $2,437 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $53 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $73 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $16 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $14 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $6 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $88 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $6 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $8 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $6 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $32 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,960.01 · official $23,960.01 (match) · 3500 history records