Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c81…e7a7 crypto 580 markets active 1d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-1%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%395W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$40
14 days+$71
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$231
other 2% −$114
sports 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 63% -7.0%
≤30d 131 -1.8% -11.2% 66% 58% -11.6%
≤90d 580 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 54% -12.1%
all 580 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 54% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 54% -12.1%
10% -19.8% 44% -20.5%
15% -27.6% 33% -28.2%
20% -34.7% 19% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses395 / 185
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)580 / 580
History coverage50d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 580 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$35 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$17 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $29 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1640 history records