Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c80…60ad sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$391 (-18%) realized −$391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,105
other 23% −$422
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +75.1% +58.4% 100% 100% +56.0%
≤30d 7 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 71% +50.7%
≤90d 7 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 71% +50.7%
all 7 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 71% +50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 71% +50.7%
10% -3.7% 71% +36.3%
15% -13.0% 57% +23.1%
20% -21.5% 57% +11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$211 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage22d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $203 +$134 +66%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $710 +$515 +72%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 +$45 +88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $507 +$372 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $164 +$39 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $490 −$417 -85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $125 37m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $390 37m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 73¢ $41 38m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $319 38m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $52 39m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 74¢ $11 40m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $47 40m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $30 40m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 75¢ $11 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $22 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $56 42m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 46¢ $55 42m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 74¢ $191 43m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $758 43m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $430 43m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 28¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $203 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $497 2h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $31 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 8¢ $65 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $99 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records