Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c7f…a171 world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1
other 14% −$1
sports 6% +$1
finance 5% +$12
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +15.1% +4.1% 50% 17% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +10.5% +0.0% 58% 17% -7.1%
all 35 +3.9% -6.0% 54% 6% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 6% -7.9%
10% -15.0% 6% -16.7%
15% -23.2% 3% -24.8%
20% -30.8% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.92 per $1 lost it wins $5.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $48 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $54 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $82 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 19 $9 $0 -2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? May 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 6m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $58 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $43 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $19 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $29 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $17 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $31 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $12 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $35 38h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $23 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $53 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $8 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $46 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $21 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $43 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $25 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $2 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $27 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.40 · official $52.66 (match) · 97 history records