Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7d…1dfe crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$65 (+5%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$86
world 40% +$14
tech 12% +$5
politics 5% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 75% 20% -23.0%
≤30d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 75% 20% -23.0%
≤90d 24 -10.9% -19.4% 79% 21% -14.5%
all 33 -7.4% -16.2% 82% 15% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 15% -12.1%
10% -24.2% 6% -20.5%
15% -31.6% 3% -28.2%
20% -38.3% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage127d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$5 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +30%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $93 +$5 +5%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 23 $64 +$29 +45%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 25 $60 +$4 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $57 +$2 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $57 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $53 +$4 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $52 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 16 $52 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $51 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $51 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records