Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7c…c309 other 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$42
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% $0
other 17% −$1
world 17% −$10
sports 14% −$16
culture 1% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 11% -14.3%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 29% 14% -10.2%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 8% -9.8%
all 77 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage478d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $98 −$20 -20%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $159 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $87 −$28 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $183 +$10 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $162 +$23 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $89 −$4 -5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $942 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $942 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $188 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $944 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $159 −$1 -1%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 18 $32 −$11 -33%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $2 $0 -7%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5 Mar 17 $170 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $169 +$2 +1%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 17 $13 $0 -1%
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) Mar 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $60 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $70 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $155 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $155 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $78 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $70 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $171 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $171 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $11 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $145 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records