Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c78…57e2 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,184 (-25%) realized −$1,178 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$1,429
sports 36% +$342
crypto 2% −$100
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -55.3%
≤30d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -55.3%
≤90d 5 -53.2% -57.7% 20% 20% -55.3%
all 12 -43.2% -48.6% 25% 25% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 25% -33.7%
10% -53.5% 25% -40.0%
15% -58.0% 25% -45.8%
20% -62.1% 25% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$207 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,178
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage232d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $2,863 −$1,429 -50%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $1,000 +$562 +56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $76 +$44 +59%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 29 $23 −$4 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 28? Oct 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.23 · official $194.23 (match) · 22 history records