Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c77…c23b world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-40%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$10
world 32% −$39
other 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.0% -38.5% 44% 22% -20.3%
≤30d 18 -32.0% -38.5% 44% 22% -20.3%
≤90d 18 -32.0% -38.5% 44% 22% -20.3%
all 40 -69.4% -72.3% 20% 10% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.3% 10% -51.2%
10% -75.0% 8% -55.9%
15% -77.4% 8% -60.2%
20% -79.6% 2% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage358d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Wednesday? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  25? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  30? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  29? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  28? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  27? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Iran in 2025? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Congress authorizes military force against Iran before July? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Congress authorizes military force against Iran before August? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuck" again in June? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces in Iran before August? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records