Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

0C 0x0c77…1bfe other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$86 (+14%) realized +$65 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate28%8W / 21L

Drawdown59%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)+9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+20.8%	+9.3%	25%	25%	+15.4%
≤30d	29	+20.7%	+9.2%	28%	28%	+14.9%
≤90d	29	+20.7%	+9.2%	28%	28%	+14.9%
all	29	+20.7%	+9.2%	28%	28%	+14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.2%	28%	+14.9%
10%	-1.3%	21%	+3.9%
15%	-10.8%	21%	-6.1%
20%	-19.6%	21%	-15.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +117% → late -69% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$65

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)28%

Wins / losses8 / 21

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)29 / 35

History coverage8d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown59%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	31¢	30¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	0¢	12¢	$0	$24	+$24 (+0%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals	Yes	19¢	18¢	$25	$23	−$2 (-8%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 21	$12	+$10	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 21	$16	−$3	-22%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$2	-9%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$5	+20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 21	$40	−$32	-80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$10	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$20	+384%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals	Jun 21	$10	+$68	+663%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$11	+$99	+874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	Jun 20	$41	+$58	+141%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$37	+$26	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$3	-57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$10	−$1	-13%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	Jun 20	$10	−$5	-48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$20	+$3	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$26	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$31	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$26	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$12	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$30	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$12	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$24	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	19¢	$26	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	31¢	$26	2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	2h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	48¢	$76	10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	SELL	94¢	$98	10h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$64	13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$11	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$2	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	SELL Yes	11¢	$9	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.81 · official $175.87 · 72 history records