Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0c73…68e7 sports 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59,971 (-5%) realized −$61,037 · open +$1,066
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate72%374W / 142L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,497per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$5,835est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8,748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,374
7 days−$59,405
14 days−$49,228
30 days−$47,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$53,312
other 12% −$8,397
crypto 4% −$941
world 0% +$277
politics 0% +$54
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -33.4% -39.7% 40% 11% -20.0%
≤30d 283 -4.9% -14.0% 71% 32% -13.7%
≤90d 516 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 42% -14.0%
all 516 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 42% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 42% -14.0%
10% -19.9% 22% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 10% -29.7%
20% -34.7% 6% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,369) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$1,116 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$8,748
Realized−$61,037
Unrealized+$1,066
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses374 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5,835
Open positions1
Markets (closed)516 / 518
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$2,497
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $7,683 $8,748 +$1,066 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $57 −$3 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $11,407 −$3,344 -29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3,043 −$3,036 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5,061 −$216 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8,026 +$265 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,018 +$728 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,047 −$7,634 -76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10,042 +$353 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $19,667 +$1,011 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2,045 −$295 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,040 −$2,328 -46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5,070 +$1,223 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $21,017 +$26 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10,063 −$2,511 -25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,030 +$386 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,668 −$968 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11,855 +$603 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10,063 +$625 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $35,455 −$4,677 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16,145 +$778 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4,916 +$251 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20,101 +$1,477 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,041 −$323 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10,017 −$196 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10,686 +$499 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $13,295 +$1,004 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28,952 −$4,927 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10,048 −$10,045 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,054 +$396 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12,835 +$641 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8,289 −$399 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $22,818 −$14,567 -64%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $21,076 +$1,727 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,084 +$404 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,755 −$799 -14%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1,005 −$514 -51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1,007 −$835 -83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,068 +$224 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16,383 +$846 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5,033 +$362 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3,075 +$225 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,012 −$1,839 -91%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $7,308 −$3,873 -53%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $54 11m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,676 23m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $57 50m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,021 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $871 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $466 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $56 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $1,100 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $14 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $14 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $181 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $56 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $670 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $996 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $85 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $186 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 93¢ $9 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $15 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $1,092 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $127 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,748.33 · official $8,748.33 (match) · 3500 history records