Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c6e…6a35 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-3%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$73
other 16% −$1
economics 10% $0
tech 8% −$1
world 6% −$14
politics 6% $0
finance 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 89 -1.7% -11.0% 44% 16% -10.8%
all 111 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 21% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 21% -12.6%
10% -18.2% 11% -21.0%
15% -26.1% 5% -28.6%
20% -33.3% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage114d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $131 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 25 $16 $0 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 18 $12 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 06 $18 −$1 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 20 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $7 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $10 27h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $10 27h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 27h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 36h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 36h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 36h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $32 12d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $11 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 15d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 15d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 15d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 18d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.97 · official $27.97 (match) · 330 history records