Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c6e…3f82 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$10
other 26% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 33% +17.5%
≤30d 73 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -8.8%
≤90d 73 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -8.8%
all 73 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 41% -8.8%
10% -22.1% 34% -17.6%
15% -29.6% 33% -25.5%
20% -36.5% 26% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage24d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 72¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 81¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$10 +164%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 −$3 -84%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $3 −$2 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $3 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $6 −$2 -38%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $3 −$3 -85%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $2 +$1 +39%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $1 +$1 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 26 $3 −$2 -54%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 26 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $4 −$1 -27%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $2 $0 +19%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $3 −$1 -58%
Roland Garros WTA: Akasha Urhobo vs Katie Boulter May 25 $3 +$1 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $2 +$1 +30%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5) May 25 $3 −$2 -61%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 May 25 $3 +$1 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $19 −$10 -52%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) May 24 $3 +$1 +21%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$3 +99%
Spread: RC Deportivo La Coruña (-1.5) May 24 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$2 -50%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $21 +$14 +67%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) May 24 $1 +$1 +44%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $12 +$7 +61%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces May 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) May 24 $6 −$5 -77%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 24 $6 −$5 -88%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $15 −$7 -45%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 May 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 $0 -8%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) May 24 $4 +$4 +87%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $5 +$6 +126%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 27¢ $17 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $3 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 99¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 13¢ $0 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 89¢ $3 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 22¢ $0 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 81¢ $1 14d
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 10¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 16¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 27¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 63¢ $3 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $5 15d
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 59¢ $1 15d
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 59¢ $3 15d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Arsenal FC 100¢ $4 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 17d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Sergei Pavlovich 82¢ $3 17d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL No 15¢ $1 18d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.82 · official $6.82 (match) · 188 history records