Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c6c…0319 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL +$233 (+6%) realized +$198 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%65W / 85L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$321
other 3% −$115
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.1% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +3.8% -6.1% 43% 39% -4.2%
≤90d 129 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 42% -2.4%
all 150 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 42% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -4.0%
10% -24.9% 37% -13.2%
15% -32.2% 35% -21.6%
20% -38.8% 30% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses65 / 85
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage100d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Over 20¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Over 20¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Over $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 Over $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? No $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$9 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 +$26 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 +$13 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$7 -44%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $25 +$17 +66%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $26 +$15 +59%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $46 −$15 -34%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $25 +$10 +38%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 23 $25 +$27 +107%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 23 $25 −$12 -49%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 May 17 $15 +$78 +509%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $25 +$10 +38%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $25 +$18 +72%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 May 13 $25 +$26 +101%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 May 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 May 07 $15 +$11 +70%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $25 +$14 +55%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 May 07 $15 +$13 +83%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $25 +$3 +12%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $17 +$2 +14%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $15 −$15 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 May 02 $25 +$29 +114%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 01 $25 −$25 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $16 −$15 -94%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $25 +$18 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $15 +$17 +108%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $15 −$15 -97%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $15 +$7 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $19 59m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $25 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $16 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $26 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes $16 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 15d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $42 18d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $42 18d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $26 18d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 18d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 21d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $29 21d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $35 21d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 21d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 21d
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 22d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $13 22d
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 22d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 22d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.55 · official $44.55 (match) · 269 history records