Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c6b…82a1 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
politics 22% +$3
other 21% +$1
sports 14% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 0% -10.0%
all 49 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage324d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $43 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during conference with Putin on A Aug 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $49 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $12 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $29 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $28 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $12 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $30 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $6 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $24 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.90 · official $31.90 (match) · 150 history records