Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0c67…d062 sports 595 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,181 (-10%) realized −$17,177 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%251W / 343L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,730est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,430
7 days−$2,243
14 days−$2,094
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$17,147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -24.4%
≤30d 171 -2.9% -12.2% 45% 45% -9.7%
≤90d 413 -9.2% -17.8% 44% 44% -16.6%
all 594 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 42% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 42% -19.0%
10% -28.5% 42% -26.7%
15% -35.4% 41% -33.8%
20% -41.7% 40% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$260 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$17,177
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses251 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,730
Open positions1
Markets (closed)594 / 595
History coverage124d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Zero Tenacity 60¢ 59¢ $240 $236 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 335 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $356 +$336 +94%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $499 +$407 +82%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $300 +$199 +66%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $202 −$199 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $427 −$427 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $240 +$196 +82%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $254 +$237 +93%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $280 −$274 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 +$378 +189%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $205 −$201 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $483 −$479 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $296 +$197 +66%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $507 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$54 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $408 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $348 +$922 +265%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $343 −$89 -26%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $357 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $302 +$274 +90%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $198 −$195 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $209 +$327 +157%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $244 +$264 +108%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $276 +$236 +86%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $331 +$482 +146%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$479 +323%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $297 −$291 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $304 +$264 +87%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $248 −$245 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $246 −$242 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $277 +$173 +62%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $307 +$273 +89%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $254 +$367 +144%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $260 −$256 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 60¢ $192 16m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 60¢ $48 24m
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 100¢ $691 32m
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $202 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 55¢ $106 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 99¢ $906 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $185 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 60¢ $26 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 60¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 60¢ $221 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Execration 100¢ $499 3h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 60¢ $25 3h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $177 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $78 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $56 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $44 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $67 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 60¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.00 · official $226.00 · 970 history records