Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c67…b3df world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$3
crypto 10% $0
other 10% +$1
tech 8% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 8% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 8% 0% -10.5%
all 34 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage453d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will BTC close above $106K on May 23? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $33 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $38 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.86 · official $8.86 (match) · 102 history records