Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c67…1142 crypto 624 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$92 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%286W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day97.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$33
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$19
other 11% −$102
sports 11% +$52
world 3% −$14
weather 1% −$16
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 46% -10.1%
≤30d 594 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 594 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 43% -10.0%
all 594 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 40% -18.6%
15% -34.6% 36% -26.5%
20% -41.0% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses286 / 308
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions30
Markets (closed)594 / 624
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day97.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 71¢ 50¢ $31 $22 −$9 (-30%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 24¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+35%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 71¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 24¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? No 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2 +$2 +115%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 $0 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $3 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 21? Jun 21 $19 −$4 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$21 +92%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $21 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$12 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 21 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$11 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$13 +46%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 23? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$13 +398%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$10 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 92¢ $5 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 8m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 42¢ $2 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $22 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 38m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $2 47m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 37¢ $5 52m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 35¢ $5 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $5 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 31¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 86¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 30¢ $4 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.35 · official $81.35 (match) · 1443 history records