Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c65…d60d other 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,784 (+1%) realized −$2,406 · open +$8,190
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%246W / 109L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,126per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$101,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$65
14 days+$1,366
30 days+$1,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$7,168
other 21% −$1,798
politics 17% −$5,047
economics 9% +$2,011
sports 4% +$2,669
culture 1% +$74
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% +$89
crypto 1% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 30% -10.2%
≤30d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 65% 30% -6.4%
≤90d 60 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 25% -8.1%
all 355 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 32% -10.3%
10% -21.5% 18% -18.9%
15% -29.1% 12% -26.7%
20% -36.0% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$770) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$283 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$101,193
Realized−$2,406
Unrealized+$8,190
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses246 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions41
Markets (closed)355 / 396
History coverage595d
Avg bet$1,126
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $27,527 $31,570 +$4,043 (+15%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $12,202 $12,444 +$241 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $11,031 $10,730 −$301 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $7,458 $9,321 +$1,864 (+25%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,680 $3,780 +$100 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $3,506 $3,649 +$143 (+4%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2,700 $2,775 +$75 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 66¢ 86¢ $1,873 $2,465 +$592 (+32%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,922 $1,967 +$45 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,860 $1,904 +$44 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,860 $1,850 −$10 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 45¢ 83¢ $900 $1,661 +$760 (+84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $1,494 $1,575 +$81 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,350 $1,382 +$32 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,380 $1,370 −$10 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 40¢ 37¢ $1,353 $1,272 −$82 (-6%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 77¢ 88¢ $1,000 $1,142 +$142 (+14%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $957 $958 +$1 (+0%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $920 $955 +$35 (+4%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $880 $865 −$15 (-2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $640 $819 +$179 (+28%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $804 $804 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $736 $772 +$36 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 62¢ 88¢ $500 $719 +$219 (+44%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $660 $625 −$35 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jun 20 $100 −$72 -72%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $500 −$444 -89%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $428 +$11 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,043 +$51 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,468 +$92 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $36 +$5 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,200 +$300 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $720 +$280 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,942 −$242 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $352 −$48 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $380 −$278 -73%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 13 $100 −$30 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $948 −$36 -4%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $100 +$35 +35%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $176 +$24 +13%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $587 +$38 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $5,434 +$271 +5%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $2,964 +$935 +32%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $11,065 +$189 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 12 $9,017 +$283 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $1,651 −$78 -5%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 04 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $1,000 +$129 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $29,722 +$2,028 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $178 +$22 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $224 −$4 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $100 +$67 +67%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $500 +$12 +2%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $774 +$26 +3%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 14 $384 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $100 −$66 -66%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $381 +$19 +5%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 11 $237 +$173 +73%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $9,970 −$4 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $61 −$22 -36%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 09 $558 +$12 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 08 $88 +$12 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $205 +$26 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $267 −$112 -42%
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? Apr 08 $787 +$13 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 06 $243 −$27 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $500 −$48 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 05 $874 −$5 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $100 +$34 +34%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $6,277 +$170 +3%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 02 $6,820 −$4,564 -67%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 01 $1 $0 +3%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $300 −$16 -5%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL Yes $28 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No $56 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $160 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $193 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $59 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $220 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $228 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $200 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $194 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $111 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $191 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $642 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $143 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $438 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $644 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $80 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $382 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $352 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $174 3d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $63 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $402 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $168 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $118 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $128 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101,192.88 · official $101,189.76 (match) · 2200 history records