Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c61…302e world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
politics 26% +$5
other 12% +$2
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 45 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -8.9%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.4% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.8% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage306d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $84 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $11 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $89 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $19 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 15 $49 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Oc Oct 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 +$5 +88%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 +16%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $42 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $45 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $45 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $41 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $42 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.95 · official $44.95 (match) · 159 history records