Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0c5c…8d37 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-12%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$133
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$109
other 39% −$24
crypto 4% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -33.2% -39.5% 28% 24% -27.2%
≤30d 40 -30.8% -37.4% 28% 25% -22.6%
≤90d 40 -30.8% -37.4% 28% 25% -22.6%
all 40 -30.8% -37.4% 28% 25% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 25% -22.6%
10% -43.4% 25% -30.0%
15% -48.9% 22% -36.8%
20% -53.9% 22% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 38¢ 43¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$16 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$26 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $47 −$14 -30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 −$30 -28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 +$7 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$30 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$83 +162%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 +$33 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +79%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 15¢ $15 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $31 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $31 42h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 43h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $30 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $50 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 15¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 15¢ $31 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.45 · official $62.45 (match) · 185 history records