Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c5b…ba7a sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$61 (+40%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$27
other 30% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 75% +39.2%
≤30d 4 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 75% +39.2%
≤90d 4 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 75% +39.2%
all 4 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 75% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.2% 75% +39.2%
10% +20.5% 75% +25.9%
15% +8.8% 75% +13.7%
20% -1.8% 50% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 57¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$29 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$23 +65%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 68¢ $17 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 14h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 67¢ $61 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco: BUY 78¢ $16 19h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $4 21h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $4 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.49 · official $25.49 (match) · 10 history records