Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c58…a496 other 73 markets active 12h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+3%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 47L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 30% +$40
politics 15% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 +5.2% -4.8% 31% 8% -4.4%
all 72 +3.9% -6.0% 35% 7% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 7% -6.9%
10% -15.0% 4% -15.9%
15% -23.2% 3% -24.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage298d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 −$3 -17%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 25 $34 +$29 +85%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $3 +$6 +243%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $21 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $1 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $39 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $45 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records