Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

0C 0x0c56…3f16 other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,098 (-19%) realized −$1,098 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$965per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-24.1%	-31.4%	17%	17%	-31.4%
≤30d	6	-24.1%	-31.4%	17%	17%	-31.4%
≤90d	6	-24.1%	-31.4%	17%	17%	-31.4%
all	6	-24.1%	-31.4%	17%	17%	-31.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.4%	17%	-31.4%
10%	-37.9%	17%	-37.9%
15%	-43.9%	17%	-43.9%
20%	-49.4%	0%	-49.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$345 vs −$348 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.2 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,098

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage27d

Avg bet$965

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$735	−$649	-88%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$679	−$252	-37%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$721	−$161	-22%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$721	+$345	+48%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$1,390	−$132	-10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$1,544	−$548	-36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$87	2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$426	2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$559	2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1,066	2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1,259	2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$996	2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$679	27d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$721	27d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$735	27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$721	27d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,544	27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,390	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records