Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c54…02e9 weather 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-4%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 51 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 51 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.9%
all 51 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 0% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 0% -23.0%
15% -30.3% 0% -30.5%
20% -37.1% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 22 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 22 $26 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $54 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $48 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $32 −$10 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $24 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$13 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $18 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $68 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $56 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 36¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 37¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 53¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 53¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 52¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 55¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 55¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 48¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 48¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 41¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 43¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 58¢ $28 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL No 45¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 46¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 42¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 42¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 59¢ $29 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 59¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records