Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c52…02bb world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$5
other 15% −$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 16 -2.6% -11.8% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -2.6% -11.8% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 44 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage317d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $89 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $140 −$3 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $55 +$5 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $8 −$3 -33%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -8%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Aug 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $58 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $58 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $57 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $62 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $62 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records