Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0C 0x0c4f…47a4 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,116 (+8%) realized +$1,310 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%40W / 37L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,304
7 days−$2,199
14 days−$2,141
30 days−$2,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,233
other 24% +$246
crypto 5% −$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -33.1% -39.5% 21% 21% -74.3%
≤30d 25 -22.8% -30.1% 24% 24% -72.1%
≤90d 31 -14.5% -22.6% 35% 35% -61.9%
all 77 +15.5% +4.5% 52% 51% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 51% -2.0%
10% -5.5% 47% -11.4%
15% -14.7% 43% -19.9%
20% -23.0% 39% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$147 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$1,310
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses40 / 37
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage223d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $87 $50 −$36 (-42%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $200 $42 −$158 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $162 +$77 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$62 -61%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jun 21 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bucks vs. Warriors Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 21 $128 −$128 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Jun 21 $324 −$324 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Jun 21 $452 −$452 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 21 $482 −$482 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$202 +785%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $76 +$80 +105%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 +$26 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$58 +226%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 16 $88 +$21 +24%
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever May 16 $146 +$20 +13%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 16 $13 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Will SBV Excelsior vs. FC Volendam end in a draw? May 13 $75 +$50 +67%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $26 −$24 -93%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $297 +$285 +96%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 07 $250 −$250 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Jan 07 $50 +$158 +316%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $300 +$202 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? Dec 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Dec 30 $100 +$52 +52%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $150 +$100 +66%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $150 +$170 +113%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $125 +$87 +70%
Penn State vs. Clemson Dec 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Dec 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Dec 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Dec 27 $100 +$194 +194%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 +$354 +354%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $200 +$122 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $162 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $39 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $127 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 29h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $83 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $38 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 15¢ $98 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $109 36d
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners BUY San Diego Padres 80¢ $88 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $0 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $1 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $2 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $11 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $46 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $11 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $9 37d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $24 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 11¢ $26 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 10¢ $25 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.45 · official $92.45 (match) · 191 history records