Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c4e…6982 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 42% -22.0%
≤30d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 42% -22.0%
≤90d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 42% -22.0%
all 19 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 42% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -22.0%
10% -30.7% 42% -29.4%
15% -37.4% 42% -36.3%
20% -43.5% 42% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records