Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c4d…b14a other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$115
14 days−$114
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$30
world 16% $0
crypto 15% −$38
sports 6% −$9
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 12% -25.7%
≤30d 26 +1.2% -8.5% 77% 23% -23.5%
≤90d 26 +1.2% -8.5% 77% 23% -23.5%
all 52 -9.0% -17.7% 40% 13% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 13% -23.4%
10% -25.6% 8% -30.7%
15% -32.8% 6% -37.4%
20% -39.3% 6% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage647d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $27 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No 78¢ 57¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $45 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +219%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Poland? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cambodia 3 - 1 Bhutan? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 03 $8 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Finland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Finland? Jun 03 $12 +$2 +18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $11 +$9 +75%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Feb 06 $0 +$50 +99900%
Will Trump say "mog" in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Trump convicted of another felony before election? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ineligible to run for President? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
iPhone 16 pro under $1000? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
49ers vs. Jets Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Ethena crash in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch? Sep 09 $0 $0 -99%
Solana above $130 on September 13? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above $55,000 on September 13? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
ESPN back on DirecTV before Falcons vs. Eagles? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
US bank failure by October 31? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 85¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY No 96¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 25¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 33¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 29¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 94¢ $19 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Poland? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.49 · official $61.49 (match) · 99 history records