Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c47…37e8 other 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$20 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate51%69W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day68.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$3
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$32
tech 29% −$61
finance 11% −$26
sports 3% −$14
crypto 2% −$25
politics 2% −$3
world 2% +$3
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +1.7% -8.0% 49% 26% -9.0%
≤30d 136 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 26% -12.1%
≤90d 136 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 26% -12.1%
all 136 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 26% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 15% -20.5%
15% -27.6% 10% -28.2%
20% -34.7% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses69 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)136 / 159
History coverage10d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day68.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 38¢ 48¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 56¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? No 49¢ 57¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 58¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+70%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 93¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 11¢ 23¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+109%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 28¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? No 19¢ 30¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+58%)
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 12¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $75 −$1 -2%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Jun 21 $15 +$18 +122%
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in June? Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -12%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 21 $45 $0 +1%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +4%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $40 −$9 -22%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -21%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 20 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $45 +$10 +22%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $15 −$3 -19%
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? Jun 20 $18 +$20 +115%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$4 -26%
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -19%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2. Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 17 $15 +$27 +183%
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +104%
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $45 −$13 -30%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$4 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 48¢ $15 4m
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $15 10m
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 13m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 15m
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 69¢ $16 1h
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 1h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $15 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? SELL No 84¢ $16 2h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 4h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 5h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $15 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $15 6h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 6h
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 29¢ $17 7h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 7h
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7h
Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in June? SELL No 77¢ $15 7h
Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 76¢ $15 7h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $0 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.60 · official $246.75 (match) · 700 history records