Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c47…e1cb sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$108 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%37W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$133
other 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 59% -13.6%
≤30d 51 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 59% -13.6%
≤90d 51 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 59% -13.6%
all 51 +3.1% -6.7% 73% 59% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 59% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 27% -21.9%
15% -23.8% 14% -29.4%
20% -31.3% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$55 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses37 / 14
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Over 76¢ 74¢ $152 $148 −$4 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 99¢ $140 $148 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $151 +$29 +19%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $86 +$14 +16%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $49 +$27 +55%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $372 −$371 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $51 +$67 +132%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$17 +34%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $103 −$31 -30%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $84 −$43 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$39 -79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$23 -46%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $15 +$5 +30%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$17 -35%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$18 +35%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$15 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $50 +$11 +22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 AND S Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $158 +$34 +21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $81 +$19 +23%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$4 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $49 −$14 -28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $187 +$13 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $95 +$32 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $117 +$14 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$21 +42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$25 -50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $141 +$19 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $47 +$8 +16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $221 +$11 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $101 +$28 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $50 −$10 -20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$7 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 −$12 -24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $171 +$22 +13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $21 +$11 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 −$33 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 18m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $140 35m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 50m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 86¢ $79 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 86¢ $7 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 64¢ $34 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 68¢ $69 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $0 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $75 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $6 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $217 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $113 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $13 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $4 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $13 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $13 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 37¢ $73 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 53¢ $7 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $28 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 40¢ $34 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $51 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $51 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $84 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.98 · official $345.98 · 120 history records