Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0c44…8eec crypto 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$429 (+7%) realized +$435 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%217W / 139L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$83
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$450
crypto 25% −$30
other 3% +$2
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +78.4% +61.4% 100% 100% +61.4%
≤30d 34 +33.7% +21.0% 76% 65% +36.5%
≤90d 149 +32.2% +19.6% 48% 41% +3.8%
all 356 +2.3% -7.5% 61% 17% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 17% -0.9%
10% -16.3% 14% -10.4%
15% -24.4% 10% -19.1%
20% -31.8% 9% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$435
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses217 / 139
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)356 / 359
History coverage158d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $84 $97 +$13 (+15%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 75¢ 72¢ $78 $75 −$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 36¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+25%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$11 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 21 $19 +$15 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$52 +266%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$8 +85%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$19 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $89 +$179 +203%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $29 +$28 +99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $57 +$15 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$20 +66%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$11 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $79 +$3 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $19 +$15 +80%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $38 +$12 +32%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $43 −$2 -4%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $7 +$1 +18%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner May 28 $40 +$4 +10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 28 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $40 −$27 -68%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $19 −$6 -29%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $33 −$33 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 26 $71 +$73 +103%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Dplus qualify for EWC 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $30 +$8 +28%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $115 +$29 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $85 +$23 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $15 +$4 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $59 +$75 +129%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $28 −$11 -42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $27 −$17 -63%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 22 $29 +$19 +65%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $7 +$3 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $29 +$26 +87%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $9 −$6 -69%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $20 +$1 +3%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $30 +$5 +17%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $9 +$1 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 20 $59 −$6 -10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 20 $87 +$18 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $79 $0 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $71 −$6 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 33¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $19 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 95¢ $24 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $7 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $3 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 58¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 56¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 90¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 64¢ $8 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 43¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $17 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $10 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 91¢ $45 8d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 55¢ $28 8d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 12¢ $10 8d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $10 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 27¢ $17 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 27¢ $2 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.33 · official $215.33 (match) · 1481 history records