Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c40…aa1c sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-19%) realized −$41 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$50
other 35% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 33% 33% +2.6%
≤30d 6 +30.2% +17.8% 33% 33% +2.6%
≤90d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 25% -49.4%
all 9 +13.2% +2.5% 33% 33% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 33% -30.3%
10% -7.4% 33% -37.0%
15% -16.3% 33% -43.1%
20% -24.5% 33% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage155d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $42 −$2 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 28 $16 +$16 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $16 $0 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $5 +$11 +216%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $45 −$44 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $28 +$39 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $10 22m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $16 2d
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 49¢ $16 2d
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $16 2d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Kaan Ofli 100¢ $16 2d
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 31¢ $5 2d
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 14¢ $5 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 1¢ $0 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 66¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 66¢ $15 2d
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 45¢ $10 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $45 30d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $64 37d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 155d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.68 · official $10.68 (match) · 21 history records