Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c40…8ef9 weather 595 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-6%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%291W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$16
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$103
other 3% −$7
world 2% −$15
politics 1% +$10
tech 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.5% -22.7% 42% 38% -15.4%
≤30d 308 +16.2% +5.1% 59% 49% -12.1%
≤90d 595 -7.5% -16.4% 49% 39% -16.6%
all 595 -7.5% -16.4% 49% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 39% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -24.6%
15% -31.7% 24% -31.9%
20% -38.4% 18% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses291 / 304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)595 / 595
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 595 Trades
no open positions (254 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$36 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $112 −$31 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $39 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$15 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $7 +$9 +144%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +47%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 30 $1 +$1 +108%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 28 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? May 28 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $5 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? May 28 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 27? May 27 $6 +$6 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27? May 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? May 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$7 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 26? May 26 $3 +$7 +227%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 59¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 66¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 80¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 78¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 68¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 78¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 52¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 57¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1205 history records