Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c3f…100c crypto 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,860 (-15%) realized −$3,952 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%124W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,943
sports 2% −$27
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 46% +0.5%
≤30d 24 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 46% +0.5%
≤90d 24 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 46% +0.5%
all 300 -9.4% -18.0% 41% 38% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -24.4%
10% -25.9% 35% -31.7%
15% -33.0% 30% -38.3%
20% -39.6% 28% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$67 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$3,952
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses124 / 176
Open positions2
Markets (closed)300 / 302
History coverage208d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $100 $193 +$93 (+93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $146 +$230 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$74 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $135 +$131 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $131 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$50 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$60 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 12 $83 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 12 $228 −$144 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 12 $282 −$155 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 12 $130 −$98 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 12 $130 −$49 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 12 $40 +$30 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $30 +$44 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 12 $50 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 12 $70 +$65 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 12 $70 +$84 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 12 $190 +$54 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 11 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 11 $35 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 11 $29 +$26 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 11 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 11 $87 +$34 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 11 $73 +$58 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 11 $92 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 11 $90 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $114 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $107 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $56 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.03 · official $326.47 · 2258 history records