Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c3f…bb60 politics 128 markets active 1d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$4
other 32% −$2
sports 6% −$85
tech 4% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -5.0% -14.0% 2% 1% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 1% -11.3%
10% -22.2% 1% -19.8%
15% -29.8% 1% -27.5%
20% -36.6% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage121d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $131 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 30h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 35h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 15d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 17d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 18d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 18d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 21d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 22d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $8 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $12.02 (match) · 358 history records