Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c3c…5eea world 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,731 (+2%) realized +$14,709 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate76%191W / 61L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3,063per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,458
7 days−$1,565
14 days+$16
30 days−$4,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$18,045
politics 5% +$737
other 2% +$1,412
finance 2% −$4,019
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.2% -4.0% 59% 24% -16.0%
≤30d 76 -0.8% -10.3% 67% 12% -11.8%
≤90d 176 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 18% -8.3%
all 252 +1.7% -8.0% 76% 15% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 15% -7.7%
10% -16.8% 9% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 5% -24.6%
20% -32.2% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$4,957) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$386 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$2,121
Realized+$14,709
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses191 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)252 / 257
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$3,063
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $1,090 $1,110 +$20 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $398 $395 −$3 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $330 $330 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 70¢ 76¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $226 +$7 +3%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $228 +$8 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $6,612 −$828 -12%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $134 −$10 -7%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 20 $87 +$42 +49%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $985 −$232 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $2,482 −$452 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5,571 −$373 -7%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $326 −$251 -77%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $34 +$18 +52%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $475 +$2 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,866 +$81 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,291 −$35 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $398 +$451 +113%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,452 −$70 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$70 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,217 +$2,180 +98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $720 +$150 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,649 −$59 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $764 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,078 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $510 +$30 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,018 −$89 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,433 +$137 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $291 −$2 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $4,542 −$460 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $840 −$150 -18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1,647 −$46 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,500 +$28 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1,381 +$15 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $542 +$13 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $282 +$23 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $98 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $146 −$52 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $267 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $143 +$14 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7,194 −$7,168 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7,180 +$112 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,980 +$16 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $367 −$367 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $7,421 +$140 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $150 −$30 -20%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $200 +$79 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $81 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $129 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $477 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $100 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 5h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 5h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $172 6h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $54 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $30 7h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $83 7h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $25 7h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 8h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 8h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 8h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $281 8h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $268 8h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $902 9h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $404 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $70 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $268 26h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 48¢ $106 26h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 48¢ $19 27h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $255 27h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 42¢ $21 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $113 32h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $226 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,120.82 · official $2,120.82 (match) · 3500 history records