Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c3b…ab63 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$215 (+13%) realized +$311 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$309
sports 45% +$549
world 10% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.4% +14.4% 38% 38% +3.2%
≤30d 13 +26.4% +14.4% 38% 38% +3.2%
≤90d 13 +26.4% +14.4% 38% 38% +3.2%
all 13 +26.4% +14.4% 38% 38% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 38% +3.2%
10% +3.4% 38% -6.7%
15% -6.5% 38% -15.7%
20% -15.7% 38% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$100 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$311
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $52 −$44 -85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $52 +$148 +287%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$167 +163%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$86 +84%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $103 +$102 +99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$485 +468%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $207 −$191 -92%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $205 −$167 -81%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $208 −$100 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $52 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $52 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $16 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $39 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $96 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $207 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $205 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.40 · official $54.40 (match) · 26 history records