Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c38…ac1a other 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$837 (+1%) realized +$829 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,269per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$78
other 40% −$107
sports 5% +$1,001
economics 3% −$4
tech 2% −$4
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 94 -3.0% -12.3% 10% 5% -8.9%
all 103 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.0%
10% -20.5% 5% -17.7%
15% -28.1% 5% -25.6%
20% -35.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,662) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$5 · ×25.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized+$829
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,269
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $432 $432 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $393 $401 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $329 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $3,414 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,059 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,963 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,120 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,233 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $2,235 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,399 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $379 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $725 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,243 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $841 −$1 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,936 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $744 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $62 +$27 +44%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $52 +$51 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $433 22m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $544 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $545 2h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $705 3h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $706 7h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $328 23h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $678 25h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $329 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $679 29h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $767 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $768 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,099 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,101 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $973 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $974 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $802 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $803 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $998 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $999 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $393 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,514 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.00 · official $833.00 (match) · 337 history records