Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c36…e462 sports 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-1%) realized −$159 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%430W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$55
14 days+$13
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$140
other 8% −$69
weather 4% +$23
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$26
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 46% -6.3%
≤30d 338 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 48% -13.6%
≤90d 692 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 53% -9.7%
all 819 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 51% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 48% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 44% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses430 / 389
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions3
Markets (closed)819 / 824
History coverage236d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 61¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $32 +$18 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $83 +$57 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $40 +$21 +51%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $69 −$8 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $28 +$22 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $98 −$67 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 −$44 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $26 +$49 +193%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 +$16 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $260 +$69 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $157 −$40 -26%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $48 +$49 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $28 +$20 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $24 +$14 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $25 +$27 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -72%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$35 +170%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +64%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 −$8 -36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +64%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$16 +510%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 −$22 -75%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$30 +73%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $33 +$12 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 20m
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 20m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $30 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $20 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 23¢ $12 31h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $19 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $100 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $40 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $40 35h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 26¢ $20 35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $83 39h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $29 41h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 60¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.42 · official $14.09 (match) · 1866 history records