Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c36…207d world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,013 (+8%) realized +$8,337 · open −$324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,580per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$140
30 days+$1,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4,899
politics 16% −$308
tech 10% +$2,244
economics 9% +$1,537
crypto 5% +$285
other 3% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -8.1% -16.8% 80% 20% +4.2%
≤90d 14 -13.9% -22.1% 64% 36% +7.7%
all 55 +10.5% +0.0% 60% 36% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 36% -0.8%
10% -9.6% 24% -10.3%
15% -18.3% 15% -19.0%
20% -26.3% 9% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,678) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$138 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$4,469
Realized+$8,337
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage371d
Avg bet$1,580
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,877 $2,923 +$46 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1,400 $1,391 −$9 (-1%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $215 $98 −$117 (-54%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,560 +$97 +6%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $594 +$43 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2,410 +$1,085 +45%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,988 +$38 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $333 −$325 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? May 13 $215 +$35 +16%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $450 +$243 +54%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,302 +$13 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $1,678 +$939 +56%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31? Apr 01 $4,637 +$1,060 +23%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Mar 21 $250 −$250 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Mar 21 $125 −$125 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 21 $174 +$26 +15%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $108 −$107 -99%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28? Mar 02 $722 +$7 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $730 +$180 +25%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $75 +$862 +1150%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $4,118 +$777 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Feb 26 $1,693 −$83 -5%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 26 $1,432 −$397 -28%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 21 $1,525 +$45 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $10,138 +$1,354 +13%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 28 $400 +$101 +25%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 14 $864 −$105 -12%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 14 $837 +$26 +3%
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $7,362 +$1,546 +21%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 10 $1,206 −$39 -3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 21 $5,182 +$303 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Dec 21 $1,932 −$430 -22%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Dec 21 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 27 $500 −$189 -38%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $296 +$50 +17%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $50 −$18 -36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 21 $446 +$136 +31%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 16 $4,655 +$345 +7%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 15 $500 +$85 +17%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $1,131 −$120 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jul 04 $12,048 +$659 +6%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 24 $491 −$104 -21%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $1,395 +$368 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $1,418 1h
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY No 97¢ $1,302 12d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 19d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,357 19d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,138 19d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $28 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 20d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $68 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 21d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 22d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 22d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 22d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 22d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 22d
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,469.46 · official $4,469.46 (match) · 821 history records