Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0C 0x0c2f…6742 weather 44 markets active 5d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$49
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$10
other 29% +$13
crypto 19% +$3
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +44.7% +30.9% 87% 10% -0.2%
≤90d 44 +23.8% +12.0% 82% 7% -9.1%
all 44 +23.8% +12.0% 82% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 7% -9.1%
10% +1.3% 7% -17.8%
15% -8.5% 7% -25.7%
20% -17.4% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$24 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage46d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $51 +$49 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$83 +1192%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 31 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 22 $15 +$63 +433%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $27 −$27 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET May 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 4? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8PM ET May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 30? May 04 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 30 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $7 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $7 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 18d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 27d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 27d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 32d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 32d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records