Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

0C 0x0c2d…41b2 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+12.7%	+2.0%	50%	50%	-2.0%
≤30d	4	+12.7%	+2.0%	50%	50%	-2.0%
≤90d	4	+12.7%	+2.0%	50%	50%	-2.0%
all	4	+12.7%	+2.0%	50%	50%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.0%	50%	-2.0%
10%	-7.8%	50%	-11.4%
15%	-16.7%	50%	-19.9%
20%	-24.9%	50%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Under	52¢	50¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.60 · official $9.60 (match) · 8 history records