Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c28…b74e other 32 markets active 4d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$4
other 26% −$2
finance 15% $0
politics 9% −$3
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +304.4% +265.9% 60% 40% -5.6%
≤30d 9 +169.4% +143.7% 44% 22% -8.1%
≤90d 9 +169.4% +143.7% 44% 22% -8.1%
all 32 +40.8% +27.4% 47% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 6% -9.8%
10% +15.2% 3% -18.4%
15% +4.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -6.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage454d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $7 −$1 -13%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 22 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 25 $7 $0 -5%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 23 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 21 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $51 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $49 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records